Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:30 · Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice
Likeliest: Raków Częstochowa win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Raków Częstochowa43%44%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
GKS Katowice32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 64% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Raków Częstochowa
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 19 · at MKS Korona Kielce (A)2-3
- Sep 15 · v Zagłębie Lubin (H)2-3
- Sep 11 · v Motor Lublin (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Lech Poznań (A)0-1
- Sep 3 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)1-2
GKS Katowice
WinWinLossLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Cracovia (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · at Zagłębie Lubin (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · at Piast Gliwice (A)0-3
- Aug 30 · at Górnik Zabrze (A)3-2
- Aug 23 · v Wisła Płock (H)5-0
| Last 10 games | Raków Częstochowa | GKS Katowice |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.