Superliga (Denmark) · Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00 · Randers FC vs Viborg FF
Likeliest: Viborg FF win · 45%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Randers FC27%29%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Viborg FF45%45%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 39% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Randers FC
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at Sønderjyske Fodbold (A)2-4
- Sep 16 · at Vendsyssel FF (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · v Odense Boldklub (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Brøndby IF (A)3-0
- Aug 30 · v AGF (H)2-1
Viborg FF
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Sep 20 · v FC Nordsjælland (H)4-1
- Sep 16 · at Brabrand (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Silkeborg IF (A)1-1
- Sep 4 · v Lyngby (H)0-2
- Aug 28 · at AC Horsens (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Randers FC | Viborg FF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.