Premiership (Scotland) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Rangers vs Kilmarnock
Likeliest: Rangers win · 85%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 85% for the home win. The market says 82%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rangers85%82%+3
OursMarket
Draw10%12%−2
OursMarket
Kilmarnock5%6%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 95% | 94% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 15% | 18% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 90% | 88% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 94% | 93% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rangers
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 20 · at Celtic (A)1-0
- Sep 9 · v St. Mirren (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Motherwell (H)1-0
- Sep 2 · at Falkirk FC (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · at Aberdeen (A)1-0
Kilmarnock
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 19 · v Hearts (H)1-1
- Sep 15 · at Hibernian (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Aberdeen (A)0-0
- Sep 2 · v St. Mirren (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Dundee United (H)0-4
| Last 10 games | Rangers | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.