Premiership (Scotland) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Rangers vs St. Johnstone
Likeliest: Rangers win · 80%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 80% for the home win. The market says 76%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rangers80%76%+4
OursMarket
Draw14%15%−2
OursMarket
St. Johnstone7%9%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 94% | 91% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 20% | 24% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 86% | 85% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 92% | 90% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rangers
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at Dundee FC (A)2-2
- Oct 10 · v Kilmarnock (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at Celtic (A)1-0
- Sep 9 · v St. Mirren (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Motherwell (H)1-0
St. Johnstone
WinLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 17 · v Dundee United (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · at Aberdeen (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Falkirk FC (H)1-1
- Sep 9 · v Celtic (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Hibernian (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Rangers | St. Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.