Premiership (Scotland) · Wed, Sep 9 · 18:45 · Rangers vs St. Mirren
Likeliest: Rangers win · 60%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 34%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rangers60%72%−12
OursMarket
Draw22%17%+5
OursMarket
St. Mirren18%11%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 66% | −13 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 89% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 28% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 83% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 87% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rangers
WinLossWinWinWin
- Sep 5 · v Motherwell (H)1-0
- Sep 2 · at Falkirk FC (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · at Aberdeen (A)1-0
- Aug 27 · at FK Jablonec (A)0-1
- Aug 20 · v FK Jablonec (H)1-0
St. Mirren
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 5 · v Celtic (H)1-2
- Sep 2 · at Kilmarnock (A)1-0
- Aug 30 · v Motherwell (H)3-3
- Aug 8 · v St. Johnstone (H)1-0
- Aug 1 · at Falkirk FC (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Rangers | St. Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.