3rd Division, Group 2 (Norway) · Mon, Oct 12 · 15:45 · Ranheim 2 vs Molde FK II
Likeliest: Molde FK II win · 40%
We make it 26% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 15%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ranheim 235%64%−29
OursMarket
Draw25%18%+7
OursMarket
Molde FK II40%19%+22
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 85% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 73% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 81% | −22 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 36% | +29 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 82% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 77% | −31 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ranheim 2
WinLossLossLossWin
- Oct 4 · at Spjelkavik (A)5-2
- Sep 26 · v Volda (H)1-3
- Sep 21 · at Nardo (A)1-4
- Sep 13 · v Byasen Toppfotball (H)1-4
- Sep 7 · at FK Kvik (A)7-0
Molde FK II
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 2 · v Herd (H)6-2
- Sep 26 · at Strindheim (A)0-10
- Sep 20 · v Melhus (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at NTNUI (A)4-4
- Sep 7 · v Aalesund FK II (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Ranheim 2 | Molde FK II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 3.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 4.0 | 3.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.