1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 18 · 15:00 · Ranheim IL vs Bryne FK
Likeliest: Bryne FK win · 42%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ranheim IL33%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Bryne FK42%40%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 69% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 72% | 69% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 60% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ranheim IL
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 14 · at Hødd IL (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · at Kongsvinger (A)2-6
- Oct 2 · v Egersund (H)5-0
- Sep 20 · at Lyn FK (A)4-1
- Sep 16 · at Levanger (A)2-0
Bryne FK
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 14 · v Raufoss (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · at Odds BK (A)1-2
- Oct 4 · v Lyn FK (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Åsane (A)4-0
- Sep 16 · at IL Bjarg (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Ranheim IL | Bryne FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-4 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.