NM Cup (Norway) · Tue, Oct 6 · 15:00 · Raufoss vs IK Start
Likeliest: IK Start win · 60%
Likely score: 0–2
A tight one: we make it 60% for the away win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Raufoss17%21%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
IK Start60%56%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 40% | 44% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 79% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 22% | 27% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 2.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Raufoss
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 20 · v Strømsgodset (H)0-2
- Sep 16 · at Elverum (A)3-0
- Sep 13 · v Odds BK (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Kongsvinger (A)1-9
- Aug 30 · v Sandnes Ulf (H)0-3
IK Start
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at Sandefjord Fotball (A)0-3
- Sep 16 · at Vindbjart (A)3-2
- Sep 13 · v SK Brann (H)2-0
- Sep 4 · at Aalesunds FK (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · v KFUM Oslo (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Raufoss | IK Start |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-7 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-5 | 2-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.