1. Division (Norway) · Sat, Oct 24 · 12:00 · Raufoss vs Ranheim IL
Likeliest: Ranheim IL win · 59%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 77% for both teams to score. The market says 69%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Raufoss21%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Ranheim IL59%54%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 61% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 77% | 69% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 41% | 46% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 26% | 31% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 2.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Raufoss
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · at Hødd IL (A)1-5
- Oct 14 · at Bryne FK (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Moss FK (H)1-2
- Oct 6 · v IK Start (H)1-5
- Sep 20 · v Strømsgodset (H)0-2
Ranheim IL
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 18 · v Bryne FK (H)4-2
- Oct 14 · at Hødd IL (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · at Kongsvinger (A)2-6
- Oct 2 · v Egersund (H)5-0
- Sep 20 · at Lyn FK (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Raufoss | Ranheim IL |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 3.1 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-7 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.