La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Feb 28 · 13:00 · Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Rayo Vallecano win · 43%
We make it 57% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rayo Vallecano43%38%+5
OursMarket
Draw23%31%−8
OursMarket
Athletic Club34%32%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 42% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 49% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 68% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 62% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 69% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 54% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rayo Vallecano
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Feb 21 · at Real Betis (A)1-1
- Feb 15 · v Atlético Madrid (H)3-0
- Feb 1 · at Real Madrid (A)1-2
- Jan 24 · v Osasuna (H)1-3
- Jan 18 · at Celta de Vigo (A)0-3
Athletic Club
WinWinLossWinWin
- Feb 20 · v Elche (H)2-1
- Feb 15 · at Real Oviedo (A)2-1
- Feb 11 · v Real Sociedad (H)0-1
- Feb 8 · v Levante (H)4-2
- Feb 4 · at Valencia (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Rayo Vallecano | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.