La Liga (Spain) · Thu, Aug 20 · 19:00 · Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés
Likeliest: Rayo Vallecano win · 54%
A 54% home win. The market says 42%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rayo Vallecano54%42%+12
OursMarket
Draw26%32%−6
OursMarket
Deportivo Alavés20%26%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 35% | +31 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 43% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 74% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 58% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 68% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 62% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rayo Vallecano
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Aug 15 · at Sevilla (A)1-2
- May 27 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-1
- May 23 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-1
- May 17 · v Villarreal (H)2-0
- May 14 · at Valencia (A)1-1
Deportivo Alavés
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Aug 15 · v Getafe (H)3-0
- May 23 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-2
- May 17 · at Real Oviedo (A)1-0
- May 13 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-0
- May 9 · at Elche (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Rayo Vallecano | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Rayo Vallecano form·Deportivo Alavés form·Head-to-head record