La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Apr 3 · 19:00 · Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
Likeliest: Rayo Vallecano win · 57%
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rayo Vallecano57%55%+2
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Elche19%20%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 74% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rayo Vallecano
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Mar 22 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-1
- Mar 19 · v Samsunspor (H)0-1
- Mar 16 · v Levante (H)1-1
- Mar 12 · at Samsunspor (A)3-1
- Mar 8 · at Sevilla (A)1-1
Elche
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Mar 21 · v Mallorca (H)2-1
- Mar 14 · at Real Madrid (A)1-4
- Mar 8 · at Villarreal (A)1-2
- Mar 1 · v Espanyol (H)2-2
- Feb 20 · at Athletic Club (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Rayo Vallecano | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.