La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Oct 24 · 12:00 · Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
Likeliest: Rayo Vallecano win · 55%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rayo Vallecano55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Elche20%21%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rayo Vallecano
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 19 · at Getafe (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Osasuna (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · v Espanyol (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Real Madrid (A)1-4
- Sep 5 · v Racing de Santander (H)3-2
Elche
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · at Villarreal (A)0-0
- Oct 11 · v Celta Vigo (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Espanyol (A)3-1
- Sep 15 · v Real Madrid (H)2-3
- Sep 12 · at Athletic Club (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Rayo Vallecano | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.