La Liga (Spain) · Thu, Apr 23 · 18:00 · Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
Likeliest: Rayo Vallecano win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 46%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rayo Vallecano53%46%+7
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Espanyol21%25%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 45% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 50% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 54% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 65% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rayo Vallecano
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Apr 16 · at AEK Athens (A)1-3
- Apr 12 · at Mallorca (A)0-3
- Apr 9 · v AEK Athens (H)3-0
- Apr 3 · v Elche (H)1-0
- Mar 22 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-1
Espanyol
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Apr 11 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-4
- Apr 4 · at Real Betis (A)0-0
- Mar 21 · v Getafe (H)1-2
- Mar 15 · at Mallorca (A)1-2
- Mar 9 · v Real Oviedo (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Rayo Vallecano | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 0-4-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.