La Liga (Spain) · Tue, Sep 15 · 17:00 · Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
Likeliest: Rayo Vallecano win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rayo Vallecano46%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Espanyol25%25%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rayo Vallecano
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Sep 12 · at Real Madrid (A)1-4
- Sep 5 · v Racing de Santander (H)3-2
- Aug 31 · at Barcelona (A)2-5
- Aug 20 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · at Sevilla (A)1-2
Espanyol
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 12 · at Osasuna (A)2-0
- Sep 6 · v Sevilla (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · v Real Madrid (H)1-2
- Aug 16 · v Levante UD (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Rayo Vallecano | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.