La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Jan 2 · 20:00 · Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe
Likeliest: Rayo Vallecano win · 59%
A 59% home win. The market says 45%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rayo Vallecano59%45%+14
OursMarket
Draw24%33%−9
OursMarket
Getafe16%21%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 29% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 41% | 37% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 79% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 55% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 67% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 68% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rayo Vallecano
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Dec 21 · at Elche (A)0-4
- Dec 18 · v Drita (H)3-0
- Dec 15 · v Real Betis (H)0-0
- Dec 11 · at Jagiellonia Białystok (A)2-1
- Dec 7 · at Espanyol (A)0-1
Getafe
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Dec 21 · at Real Betis (A)0-4
- Dec 18 · at Burgos (A)1-3
- Dec 13 · v Espanyol (H)0-1
- Dec 6 · at Villarreal (A)0-2
- Nov 28 · v Elche (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Rayo Vallecano | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.