La Liga (Spain) · Mon, May 11 · 19:00 · Rayo Vallecano vs Girona
Likeliest: Rayo Vallecano win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 39%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rayo Vallecano49%39%+10
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Girona24%32%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 50% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 57% | −11 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 68% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 61% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 54% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rayo Vallecano
WinDrawWinWinWin
- May 7 · at Strasbourg (A)1-0
- May 3 · at Getafe (A)2-0
- Apr 30 · v Strasbourg (H)1-0
- Apr 26 · v Real Sociedad (H)3-3
- Apr 23 · v Espanyol (H)1-0
Girona
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- May 1 · v Mallorca (H)0-1
- Apr 25 · at Valencia (A)1-2
- Apr 21 · v Real Betis (H)2-3
- Apr 10 · at Real Madrid (A)1-1
- Apr 6 · v Villarreal (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Rayo Vallecano | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.