La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Jan 11 · 13:00 · Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca
Likeliest: Rayo Vallecano win · 53%
We make it 54% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rayo Vallecano53%49%+4
OursMarket
Draw24%30%−6
OursMarket
Mallorca23%21%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 39% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 44% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 51% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 70% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rayo Vallecano
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Jan 6 · at Granada (A)3-1
- Jan 2 · v Getafe (H)1-1
- Dec 21 · at Elche (A)0-4
- Dec 18 · v Drita (H)3-0
- Dec 15 · v Real Betis (H)0-0
Mallorca
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Jan 4 · v Girona (H)1-2
- Dec 19 · at Valencia (A)1-1
- Dec 16 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)0-1
- Dec 13 · v Elche (H)3-1
- Dec 5 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Rayo Vallecano | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.