La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Jan 24 · 13:00 · Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna
Likeliest: Rayo Vallecano win · 46%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rayo Vallecano46%42%+4
OursMarket
Draw24%31%−7
OursMarket
Osasuna30%27%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 40% | +19 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 47% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 73% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 58% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 69% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rayo Vallecano
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Jan 18 · at Celta de Vigo (A)0-3
- Jan 14 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-2
- Jan 11 · v Mallorca (H)2-1
- Jan 6 · at Granada (A)3-1
- Jan 2 · v Getafe (H)1-1
Osasuna
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Jan 17 · v Real Oviedo (H)3-2
- Jan 13 · at Real Sociedad (A)2-2
- Jan 10 · at Girona (A)0-1
- Jan 3 · v Athletic Club (H)1-1
- Dec 20 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Rayo Vallecano | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.