La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Sep 5 · 16:30 · Rayo Vallecano vs Racing de Santander
Likeliest: Rayo Vallecano win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 42%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rayo Vallecano51%42%+8
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
Racing de Santander26%29%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 58% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 58% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 59% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rayo Vallecano
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Aug 31 · at Barcelona (A)2-5
- Aug 20 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · at Sevilla (A)1-2
- May 27 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-1
- May 23 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-1
Racing de Santander
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Aug 28 · v Elche (H)3-2
- Aug 23 · at Getafe (A)0-1
- Aug 16 · v Villarreal (H)2-2
- May 31 · v Cádiz (H)4-1
- May 24 · at Málaga (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Rayo Vallecano | Racing de Santander |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.