La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Dec 15 · 20:00 · Rayo Vallecano vs Real Betis
Likeliest: Rayo Vallecano win · 59%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rayo Vallecano59%36%+23
OursMarket
Draw22%28%−6
OursMarket
Real Betis19%36%−17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 49% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 64% | +17 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 64% | −23 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 72% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 50% | +26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rayo Vallecano
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Dec 11 · at Jagiellonia Białystok (A)2-1
- Dec 7 · at Espanyol (A)0-1
- Dec 1 · v Valencia (H)1-1
- Nov 27 · at Slovan Bratislava (A)1-2
- Nov 23 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-0
Real Betis
WinWinWinLossWin
- Dec 11 · at Dinamo Zagreb (A)3-1
- Dec 6 · v FC Barcelona (H)3-5
- Dec 3 · at Torrent (A)4-1
- Nov 30 · at Sevilla (A)2-0
- Nov 27 · v FC Utrecht (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Rayo Vallecano | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 6-4-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.