La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Nov 9 · 15:15 · Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Rayo Vallecano win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Rayo Vallecano39%——
OursMarket
Draw28%——
OursMarket
Real Madrid34%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rayo Vallecano
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Nov 6 · v Lech Poznań (H)3-2
- Nov 1 · at Villarreal (A)0-4
- Oct 29 · at Yuncos (A)6-1
- Oct 26 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-0
- Oct 23 · at Häcken (A)2-2
Real Madrid
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Nov 4 · at Liverpool (A)0-1
- Nov 1 · v Valencia (H)4-0
- Oct 26 · v FC Barcelona (H)2-1
- Oct 22 · v Juventus (H)1-0
- Oct 19 · at Getafe (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Rayo Vallecano | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.