Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Apr 30 · 19:00 · Rayo Vallecano vs Strasbourg
Likeliest: Rayo Vallecano win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rayo Vallecano44%44%0
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−2
OursMarket
Strasbourg30%27%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 73% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 62% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rayo Vallecano
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Apr 26 · v Real Sociedad (H)3-3
- Apr 23 · v Espanyol (H)1-0
- Apr 16 · at AEK Athens (A)1-3
- Apr 12 · at Mallorca (A)0-3
- Apr 9 · v AEK Athens (H)3-0
Strasbourg
LossWinLossLossWin
- Apr 26 · at Lorient (A)3-2
- Apr 22 · v Nice (H)0-2
- Apr 19 · v Rennes (H)0-3
- Apr 16 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)4-0
- Apr 9 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Rayo Vallecano | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.