La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Dec 1 · 20:00 · Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia
Likeliest: Rayo Vallecano win · 71%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rayo Vallecano71%47%+24
OursMarket
Draw18%29%−11
OursMarket
Valencia11%24%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 45% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 76% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 53% | −24 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 71% | +11 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 66% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rayo Vallecano
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Nov 27 · at Slovan Bratislava (A)1-2
- Nov 23 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-0
- Nov 9 · v Real Madrid (H)0-0
- Nov 6 · v Lech Poznań (H)3-2
- Nov 1 · at Villarreal (A)0-4
Valencia
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Nov 21 · v Levante (H)1-0
- Nov 9 · v Real Betis (H)1-1
- Nov 1 · at Real Madrid (A)0-4
- Oct 28 · at Maracena (A)5-0
- Oct 25 · v Villarreal (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Rayo Vallecano | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.