La Liga (Spain) · Sun, May 17 · 17:00 · Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal
Likeliest: Rayo Vallecano win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 39%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rayo Vallecano47%39%+9
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Villarreal27%34%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 55% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 59% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 66% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 61% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 53% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rayo Vallecano
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- May 14 · at Valencia (A)1-1
- May 11 · v Girona (H)1-1
- May 7 · at Strasbourg (A)1-0
- May 3 · at Getafe (A)2-0
- Apr 30 · v Strasbourg (H)1-0
Villarreal
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- May 13 · v Sevilla (H)2-3
- May 10 · at Mallorca (A)1-1
- May 2 · v Levante (H)5-1
- Apr 26 · v Celta de Vigo (H)2-1
- Apr 23 · at Real Oviedo (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Rayo Vallecano | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.