Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Dec 20 · 17:30 · RB Leipzig vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 58%
A 58% home win. The market says 44%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RB Leipzig58%44%+15
OursMarket
Draw20%25%−6
OursMarket
Bayer 04 Leverkusen22%31%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 69% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 56% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 75% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 59% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Leipzig
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Dec 12 · at FC Union Berlin (A)1-3
- Dec 6 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)6-0
- Dec 2 · v Magdeburg (H)3-1
- Nov 28 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-0
- Nov 23 · v Werder Bremen (H)2-0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Dec 13 · v FC Köln (H)2-0
- Dec 10 · v Newcastle United (H)2-2
- Dec 6 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-2
- Dec 2 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)1-0
- Nov 29 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | RB Leipzig | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
RB Leipzig form·Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·Head-to-head record