Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Mar 15 · 17:30 · RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
RB Leipzig40%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Borussia Dortmund34%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Leipzig
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Mar 8 · at SC Freiburg (A)0-0
- Mar 1 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)1-2
- Feb 26 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-0
- Feb 23 · v Heidenheim (H)2-2
- Feb 14 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-0
Borussia Dortmund
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Mar 12 · at LOSC Lille (A)2-1
- Mar 8 · v FC Augsburg (H)0-1
- Mar 4 · v LOSC Lille (H)1-1
- Mar 1 · at St. Pauli (A)2-0
- Feb 22 · v FC Union Berlin (H)6-0
| Last 10 games | RB Leipzig | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-1 | 4-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.