Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Feb 21 · 17:30 · RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 43%
We make it 71% for both teams to score. The market says 65%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RB Leipzig43%80%−37
OursMarket
Draw22%14%+8
OursMarket
Borussia Dortmund35%6%+29
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 64% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 71% | 65% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 94% | −29 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 20% | +37 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 86% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 93% | −38 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Leipzig
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Feb 15 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)2-2
- Feb 11 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-2
- Feb 8 · at FC Köln (A)2-1
- Jan 31 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)1-2
- Jan 27 · at St. Pauli (A)1-1
Borussia Dortmund
LossWinWinWinWin
- Feb 17 · v Atalanta (H)2-0
- Feb 13 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)4-0
- Feb 7 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)2-1
- Feb 1 · v Heidenheim (H)3-2
- Jan 28 · v Inter (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | RB Leipzig | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.