Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 11 · 13:30 · RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 56%
We make it 67% for both teams to score. The market says 60%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RB Leipzig56%64%−8
OursMarket
Draw21%20%+1
OursMarket
Borussia Mönchengladbach23%16%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 60% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 84% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 36% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 80% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 80% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Leipzig
WinWinLossWinWin
- Apr 4 · at Werder Bremen (A)2-1
- Mar 20 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)5-0
- Mar 15 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v FC Augsburg (H)2-1
- Mar 1 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Apr 4 · v Heidenheim (H)2-2
- Mar 21 · at FC Köln (A)3-3
- Mar 13 · v St. Pauli (H)2-0
- Mar 6 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-4
- Feb 28 · v FC Union Berlin (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | RB Leipzig | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
RB Leipzig form·Borussia Mönchengladbach form·Head-to-head record