Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 10 · 16:30 · RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 64%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RB Leipzig64%62%+2
OursMarket
Draw19%20%0
OursMarket
Eintracht Frankfurt17%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 74% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 67% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 38% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Leipzig
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-2
- Sep 13 · v Hamburger SV (H)5-0
- Sep 10 · at Como (A)1-4
- Sep 5 · at SV Werder Bremen (A)1-3
- Aug 29 · v Borussia M'gladbach (H)3-0
Eintracht Frankfurt
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 19 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at 1. FSV Mainz 05 (A)3-1
- Sep 6 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-4
- Aug 29 · at 1. FC Union Berlin (A)3-3
- Aug 21 · at SC St Tönis 11/20 (A)11-0
| Last 10 games | RB Leipzig | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
RB Leipzig form·Eintracht Frankfurt form·Head-to-head record