Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Mar 7 · 14:30 · RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 51%
We make it 73% for both teams to score. The market says 59%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RB Leipzig51%66%−15
OursMarket
Draw20%19%+1
OursMarket
FC Augsburg28%14%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 66% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 73% | 59% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 86% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 34% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 81% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 82% | −18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Leipzig
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Mar 1 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-1
- Feb 21 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)2-2
- Feb 15 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)2-2
- Feb 11 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-2
- Feb 8 · at FC Köln (A)2-1
FC Augsburg
WinLossWinWinWin
- Feb 27 · v FC Köln (H)2-0
- Feb 21 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)3-2
- Feb 15 · v Heidenheim (H)1-0
- Feb 7 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)0-2
- Jan 31 · v St. Pauli (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | RB Leipzig | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.