Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Jan 17 · 17:30 · RB Leipzig vs FC Bayern München
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 50%
A 29% home win. The market says 19%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RB Leipzig29%19%+10
OursMarket
Draw21%20%0
OursMarket
FC Bayern München50%60%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 40% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 81% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 24% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Leipzig
WinWinLossLossWin
- Jan 14 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-0
- Dec 20 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-3
- Dec 12 · at FC Union Berlin (A)1-3
- Dec 6 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)6-0
- Dec 2 · v Magdeburg (H)3-1
FC Bayern München
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Jan 14 · at FC Köln (A)3-1
- Jan 11 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)8-1
- Dec 21 · at Heidenheim (A)4-0
- Dec 14 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)2-2
- Dec 9 · v Sporting CP (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | RB Leipzig | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 3.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.