Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Apr 24 · 18:30 · RB Leipzig vs FC Union Berlin
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 72%
A 72% home win. The market says 65%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RB Leipzig72%65%+6
OursMarket
Draw17%20%−3
OursMarket
FC Union Berlin12%15%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 62% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 57% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 85% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 35% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 80% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 81% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Leipzig
LossWinWinWinWin
- Apr 18 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)3-1
- Apr 11 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)1-0
- Apr 4 · at Werder Bremen (A)2-1
- Mar 20 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)5-0
- Mar 15 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-1
FC Union Berlin
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Apr 18 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Heidenheim (A)1-3
- Apr 5 · v St. Pauli (H)1-1
- Mar 21 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-4
- Mar 15 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | RB Leipzig | FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.