Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Mar 1 · 14:30 · RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 52%
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
RB Leipzig52%——
OursMarket
Draw24%——
OursMarket
FSV Mainz 0524%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Leipzig
DrawWinDrawDrawWin
- Feb 26 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-0
- Feb 23 · v Heidenheim (H)2-2
- Feb 14 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-0
- Feb 9 · v St. Pauli (H)2-0
- Feb 1 · at FC Union Berlin (A)0-0
FSV Mainz 05
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Feb 22 · v St. Pauli (H)2-0
- Feb 16 · at Heidenheim (A)2-0
- Feb 8 · v FC Augsburg (H)0-0
- Jan 31 · at Werder Bremen (A)0-1
- Jan 25 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | RB Leipzig | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 13% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 63% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.