Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Jan 31 · 14:30 · RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 59%
We make it 68% for both teams to score. The market says 59%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RB Leipzig59%61%−3
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
FSV Mainz 0522%18%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 63% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 68% | 59% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 82% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 39% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 78% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Leipzig
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Jan 27 · at St. Pauli (A)1-1
- Jan 24 · at Heidenheim (A)3-0
- Jan 17 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-5
- Jan 14 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-0
- Dec 20 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-3
FSV Mainz 05
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- Jan 24 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)3-1
- Jan 17 · at FC Köln (A)1-2
- Jan 13 · v Heidenheim (H)2-1
- Jan 10 · at FC Union Berlin (A)2-2
- Dec 21 · v St. Pauli (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | RB Leipzig | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.