Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Sep 13 · 13:30 · RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 72%
A tight one: we make it 72% for the home win. The market says 70%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RB Leipzig72%70%+2
OursMarket
Draw16%18%−2
OursMarket
Hamburger SV11%12%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 68% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 88% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 30% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 85% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Leipzig
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 10 · at Como (A)1-4
- Sep 5 · at SV Werder Bremen (A)1-3
- Aug 29 · v Borussia M'gladbach (H)3-0
- Aug 22 · at Eintracht Trier (A)6-0
- May 16 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-4
Hamburger SV
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Sep 6 · v 1. FSV Mainz 05 (H)0-5
- Aug 29 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-2
- Aug 24 · at SC Verl (A)3-0
- May 16 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)1-1
- May 10 · v SC Freiburg (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | RB Leipzig | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.