Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Oct 13 · 19:00 · RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 47%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RB Leipzig47%47%0
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
PSV Eindhoven29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Leipzig
LossLossWinLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)6-0
- Sep 20 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-2
- Sep 13 · v Hamburger SV (H)5-0
- Sep 10 · at Como (A)1-4
- Sep 5 · at SV Werder Bremen (A)1-3
PSV Eindhoven
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 9 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at FC Twente (A)2-3
- Sep 13 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)4-1
- Sep 10 · v Shakhtar Donetsk (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at AFC Ajax (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | RB Leipzig | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.