Bundesliga (Germany) · Wed, Jan 14 · 19:30 · RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 42%
A 35% away win. The market says 22%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RB Leipzig42%53%−11
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
SC Freiburg35%22%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 57% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 68% | 58% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 78% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 47% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 70% | −16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Leipzig
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Dec 20 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-3
- Dec 12 · at FC Union Berlin (A)1-3
- Dec 6 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)6-0
- Dec 2 · v Magdeburg (H)3-1
- Nov 28 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-0
SC Freiburg
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Jan 10 · v Hamburger SV (H)2-1
- Dec 20 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)4-3
- Dec 14 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-1
- Dec 11 · v Salzburg (H)1-0
- Dec 6 · at Heidenheim (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | RB Leipzig | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.