Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 9 · 13:30 · RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 68%
A tight one: we make it 68% for the home win. The market says 73%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RB Leipzig68%73%−5
OursMarket
Draw19%17%+2
OursMarket
St. Pauli14%11%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 89% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 27% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 83% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 87% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Leipzig
WinWinWinWinLoss
- May 2 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)1-4
- Apr 24 · v FC Union Berlin (H)3-1
- Apr 18 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)3-1
- Apr 11 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)1-0
- Apr 4 · at Werder Bremen (A)2-1
St. Pauli
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- May 3 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)1-2
- Apr 25 · at Heidenheim (A)0-2
- Apr 17 · v FC Köln (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-5
- Apr 5 · at FC Union Berlin (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | RB Leipzig | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.