Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 24 · 13:30 · RB Leipzig vs SV 07 Elversberg
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 73%
Likely score: 2–1
A 73% home win. The market says 68%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RB Leipzig73%68%+4
OursMarket
Draw16%18%−2
OursMarket
SV 07 Elversberg12%14%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 65% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 32% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 83% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Leipzig
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-6
- Oct 13 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)6-0
- Sep 20 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-2
- Sep 13 · v Hamburger SV (H)5-0
SV 07 Elversberg
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · v FC Augsburg (H)4-3
- Oct 10 · at 1. FC Union Berlin (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · at FC Schalke 04 (A)0-0
- Sep 13 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Borussia M'gladbach (A)4-3
| Last 10 games | RB Leipzig | SV 07 Elversberg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 4-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 71% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 14% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.