Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Mar 20 · 19:30 · RB Leipzig vs TSG Hoffenheim
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 49%
We make it 72% for both teams to score. The market says 68%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RB Leipzig49%50%−1
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
TSG Hoffenheim29%27%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 72% | 68% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 65% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Leipzig
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Mar 15 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v FC Augsburg (H)2-1
- Mar 1 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-1
- Feb 21 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)2-2
- Feb 15 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)2-2
TSG Hoffenheim
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Mar 14 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-1
- Mar 7 · at Heidenheim (A)4-2
- Feb 28 · v St. Pauli (H)0-1
- Feb 21 · at FC Köln (A)2-2
- Feb 14 · v SC Freiburg (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | RB Leipzig | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.