Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Feb 15 · 16:30 · RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 52%
A 27% away win. The market says 17%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RB Leipzig52%63%−11
OursMarket
Draw21%20%+1
OursMarket
VfL Wolfsburg27%17%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 70% | 63% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 83% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 37% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 80% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 79% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Leipzig
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Feb 11 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-2
- Feb 8 · at FC Köln (A)2-1
- Jan 31 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)1-2
- Jan 27 · at St. Pauli (A)1-1
- Jan 24 · at Heidenheim (A)3-0
VfL Wolfsburg
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Feb 7 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-2
- Jan 30 · at FC Köln (A)0-1
- Jan 24 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-3
- Jan 17 · v Heidenheim (H)1-1
- Jan 14 · v St. Pauli (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | RB Leipzig | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.