Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Nov 23 · 14:30 · RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 42%
A 35% away win. The market says 16%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RB Leipzig42%65%−23
OursMarket
Draw23%19%+4
OursMarket
Werder Bremen35%16%+19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 84% | −19 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 35% | +23 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 81% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 80% | −25 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Leipzig
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Nov 8 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-3
- Nov 1 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)3-1
- Oct 28 · at Energie Cottbus (A)4-1
- Oct 25 · at FC Augsburg (A)6-0
- Oct 18 · v Hamburger SV (H)2-1
Werder Bremen
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Nov 7 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)2-1
- Nov 1 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-1
- Oct 24 · v FC Union Berlin (H)1-0
- Oct 18 · at Heidenheim (A)2-2
- Oct 4 · v St. Pauli (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | RB Leipzig | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.