J2 League (Japan) · Tue, Nov 3 · 05:00 · RB Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki FC
Likeliest: RB Omiya Ardija win · 51%
Likely scores: 1–1 13% · 2–0 9% · 1–0 7%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RB Omiya Ardija51%50%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Iwaki FC24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 56% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 66% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Omiya Ardija
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 31 · at Vegalta Sendai (A)2-1
- Oct 24 · v Yokohama FC (H)2-2
- Oct 21 · v Kataller Toyama (H)0-3
- Oct 17 · at Sagan Tosu (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v Vanraure Hachinohe (H)3-1
Iwaki FC
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 31 · at Tochigi City FC (A)3-1
- Oct 25 · v Jubilo Iwata (H)1-1
- Oct 21 · at Shonan Bellmare (A)1-1
- Oct 18 · v Ventforet Kofu (H)5-0
- Oct 11 · v Blaublitz Akita (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | RB Omiya Ardija | Iwaki FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.