J2 League (Japan) · Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 · RB Omiya Ardija vs Kataller Toyama
Likeliest: RB Omiya Ardija win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RB Omiya Ardija40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Kataller Toyama33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 63% | −10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Omiya Ardija
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Sagan Tosu (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v Vanraure Hachinohe (H)3-1
- Oct 7 · at Urawa Red Diamonds (A)2-3
- Oct 4 · at Tegevajaro Miyazaki (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Ventforet Kofu (H)5-1
Kataller Toyama
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v Shonan Bellmare (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Tegevajaro Miyazaki (H)1-1
- Oct 3 · at Ventforet Kofu (A)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Yokohama FC (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Montedio Yamagata (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | RB Omiya Ardija | Kataller Toyama |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-0 | 4-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.