J2 League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 10 · 05:00 · RB Omiya Ardija vs Vanraure Hachinohe
Likeliest: RB Omiya Ardija win · 60%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RB Omiya Ardija60%58%+2
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Vanraure Hachinohe17%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RB Omiya Ardija
DrawDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 7 · at Urawa Red Diamonds (A)2-3
- Oct 4 · at Tegevajaro Miyazaki (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Ventforet Kofu (H)5-1
- Sep 19 · at Fujieda MYFC (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Oita Trinita (H)0-0
Vanraure Hachinohe
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 4 · v Yokohama FC (H)0-2
- Sep 26 · at Jubilo Iwata (A)2-1
- Sep 18 · v Tegevajaro Miyazaki (H)0-3
- Sep 12 · v Shonan Bellmare (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Fujieda MYFC (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | RB Omiya Ardija | Vanraure Hachinohe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.