Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Aug 22 · 15:15 · RC Lens vs Auxerre
Likeliest: RC Lens win · 55%
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RC Lens55%61%−6
OursMarket
Draw25%21%+4
OursMarket
Auxerre19%18%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 59% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 56% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 82% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 39% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 79% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 77% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RC Lens
Win
- Aug 16 · v PSG (H)1-0
Auxerre
DrawLossWinWinWin
- May 17 · at LOSC Lille (A)2-0
- May 10 · v Nice (H)2-1
- May 3 · v Angers SCO (H)3-1
- Apr 25 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-3
- Apr 19 · at Monaco (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | RC Lens | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 50% |
| Both teams scored | — | 50% |
| Clean sheets | — | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.