Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Sep 5 · 15:15 · RC Lens vs Lorient
Likeliest: RC Lens win · 59%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RC Lens59%64%−6
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+2
OursMarket
Lorient19%15%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 58% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 85% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 36% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 81% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RC Lens
WinWinLoss
- Aug 29 · at RC Strasbourg (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · v Auxerre (H)5-2
- Aug 16 · v PSG (H)1-0
Lorient
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Aug 29 · v Troyes (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Nice (A)0-0
- May 17 · v Le Havre (H)0-2
- May 10 · at Metz (A)4-0
- May 2 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | RC Lens | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 40% |
| Both teams scored | — | 40% |
| Clean sheets | — | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.