Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:45 · RC Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais
Likeliest: RC Lens win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RC Lens38%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Olympique Lyonnais36%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RC Lens
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 18 · at AS Monaco (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Le Mans (A)2-2
- Sep 10 · at SK Slavia Praha (A)3-2
- Sep 5 · v Lorient (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at RC Strasbourg (A)1-2
Olympique Lyonnais
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 19 · v Stade Rennais (H)4-0
- Sep 16 · at RSC Anderlecht (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Paris FC (A)0-0
- Sep 4 · v Auxerre (H)3-1
- Aug 29 · v Le Havre (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | RC Lens | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.