League One (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Reading vs Barnsley
Likeliest: Reading win · 59%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Reading59%61%−2
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+1
OursMarket
Barnsley18%18%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 66% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 82% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 39% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Reading
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Wigan Athletic (A)0-1
- Oct 13 · v Chelsea U21 (H)0-2
- Oct 10 · at Milton Keynes Dons (A)5-1
- Oct 3 · v Bradford City (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)2-2
Barnsley
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Cambridge United (H)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Stockport County (A)1-3
- Oct 6 · at Fleetwood Town (A)1-4
- Sep 22 · v Leeds United U21 (H)3-4
- Sep 19 · v Leicester City (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Reading | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.